[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices pulled back on September 26, as the US Q2 GDP was revised significantly higher to a growth of 3.8%.

SMM Nickel September 26 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) On the evening of September 25 local time, Premier Li Qiang of the State Council held a symposium with American friendship groups in New York. Li Qiang stated that China-US relations are the most important bilateral relationship in the world, and the two countries can and should be partners and friends. The market structures of China and the US differ significantly, while their industrial structures are highly complementary, and both hold important positions in the global industry chain. Strengthening economic and trade cooperation between the two sides is mutually beneficial and win-win, benefiting the globe. The American participants indicated that the US business community is optimistic about the prospects of China's economic development and will continue to expand investment in China, playing a bridging role in promoting bilateral cooperation and enhancing mutual understanding.

(2) The US Q2 GDP was significantly revised up to growth of 3.8%, hitting a two-year high, with the previous value being 3.3%; the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 20 came in at 218,000, the lowest since the week of July 19, 2025, with the prior value revised from 231,000 to 232,000.

Spot Market:

On September 26, the SMM #1 refined nickel price was 121,100-123,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 122,450 yuan/mt, down 1,600 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,200-2,500 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,350 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -100-200 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2511) saw prices continue to decline during the night session, closing at 121,680 yuan/mt, down 1,050 yuan, a decrease of 0.86%. After opening during the day, it remained in the doldrums around the 121,000 yuan level.

The impact on nickel from earlier copper mine-related disruptions in Indonesia has faded, and nickel prices pulled back. Against the backdrop of a fundamental structure of supply surplus and high inventory that has not fundamentally changed, coupled with the influence of a strong US dollar on the macro front, nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term, with the reference range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract being 120,000-124,000 yuan/mt.